Copper: Industrial Growth Indicator — August 17, 2026 [RISK ON]

REGIME: The current Alphameter score of 0/100 indicates a NEUTRAL regime, but given the episode logic, we remain in a RISK-ON episode, with the Copper/Gold ratio's contribution to the risk-on score being a key mechanism behind this assessment. SENTIMENT DRIVER: The lack of specific headlines today means the sentiment driver is the overall market sentiment, which is being driven by the recent 6.1% increase in Copper price over the past 30 days, indicating a positive outlook for global growth. ANALYSIS: Through the "Industrial Growth Indicator" lens, the recent 1.0% increase in Copper price over the past 7 days suggests a continued positive outlook for global growth, with the Copper/Gold ratio being a key indicator of this trend. The backtest data shows that CPER has a muted regime split, with returns of +5.6%/yr risk-on and +9.4%/yr risk-off, indicating that Copper's performance is not heavily dependent on the regime. The Copper/Gold ratio's rise contributes to a risk-on score, regardless of CPER's spot returns, and as a leading indicator of global growth, Copper's current price action suggests a positive outlook. With Copper currently 10.5% above its 200-day SMA, the trend remains bullish. RISK FACTORS: Two specific catalysts that could flip the signal BEARISH for Copper are a decline in the Copper/Gold ratio below 0.45, indicating a slowdown in global growth expectations, and a drop in Copper price below its 200-day SMA, which would suggest a reversal of the current uptrend. WATCH: The upcoming event to watch is the release of the US GDP growth rate on January 27, which will provide further insight into the state of global growth and its potential impact on Copper prices.