Copper: Industrial Growth Indicator — May 7, 2026 [RISK ON]

REGIME: The current BULLISH verdict is driven by the Alphameter's RISK-ON episode regime, with a score of +69/100, indicating a strong risk-on environment that favors copper price appreciation, as evidenced by the backtest data showing CPER +18.3%/yr risk-on. SENTIMENT DRIVER: The absence of negative headlines allows the Copper/Gold ratio to take center stage, driving sentiment and price action in copper, as this ratio is a key component of the Alphameter and a classic macro signal for global growth expectations. ANALYSIS: Through the lens of the Industrial Growth Indicator, copper's recent price action, with a 7d change of +4.5% and a 30d change of +13.5%, suggests a strong uptrend, further supported by its position 16.0% above the 200-day SMA, indicating a positive outlook for global growth, consistent with the backtest data showing copper outperforming in risk-on episodes, with CPER returning +18.3%/yr. The Copper/Gold ratio, a key indicator of global growth expectations, is likely driving this price action, as a rising ratio contributes to a risk-on score. As the Alphameter is in a risk-on episode, copper is likely to continue outperforming, given its historical returns of +18.3%/yr in such episodes. RISK FACTORS: Two specific catalysts that could flip the signal BEARISH for Copper are a decline in the Copper/Gold ratio below 0.45, indicating a slowdown in global growth expectations, and a rise in the DXY Dollar Index above 105, indicating a strong US dollar that could negatively impact copper prices, potentially causing them to underperform. WATCH: The 2026-05-08 NFP — Non-Farm Employment Change event will be closely watched, as a significant deviation from the estimated 65K could impact the Alphameter's risk-on episode regime, potentially affecting copper prices, with a weaker-than-expected reading potentially leading to a decline in copper prices.