Copper: Industrial Growth Indicator — June 22, 2026 [RISK ON]

REGIME: The current market regime is BULLISH, driven by the Alphameter's RISK-ON episode, which is supported by a score of +13/100, indicating a rising Copper/Gold ratio that directly contributes to a risk-on score. SENTIMENT DRIVER: The lack of negative headlines is currently driving sentiment, as the absence of bearish news allows the Copper price to maintain its current level, with the latest close at 6.32, 11.6% above its 200-day SMA. ANALYSIS: Through the lens of the Industrial Growth Indicator, Copper's price action suggests a positive outlook for global growth, with the Copper/Gold ratio being a key driver of this sentiment, and the backtest data showing CPER +5.6%/yr risk-on and +9.4%/yr risk-off, indicating a muted regime split, but with the ratio's rise contributing to a risk-on score, regardless of CPER's spot returns, and with Copper being a leading indicator of global growth, its current price, 0.7% higher over the past 30 days, supports this view. RISK FACTORS: Two specific catalysts that could flip the signal BEARISH for Copper are a decline in the Copper/Gold ratio below 0.45, which would indicate a shift in global growth expectations, and a Core PCE Price Index m/m reading above 0.5% on June 25, which would suggest higher-than-expected inflation and potentially lead to a risk-off episode, causing Copper to underperform. WATCH: The Core PCE — Core PCE Price Index m/m event on 2026-06-25 will be closely watched, as it has the potential to impact the Alphameter's RISK-ON episode and subsequently affect Copper's price action, with an estimated reading of 0.3% expected, any significant deviation from this estimate could lead to a shift in market sentiment.