Finance News

Oil: The Inflation Pulse — August 17, 2026 [RISK ON]

REGIME: The current verdict is BULLISH, driven by the Alphameter's RISK-ON episode regime, which historically corresponds to a +33.2%/yr return for Brent oil and +27.1%/yr for WTI oil, indicating a strong positive correlation between the regime and oil price action. SENTIMENT DRIVER: The most important headline catalyst is "Shipping slows through Strait of Hormuz after tanker attacks, data shows", as it directly impacts the geopolitical risk premium and adds a supply-risk premium to oil prices, which is BULLISH for oil. ANALYSIS: Through the lens of "The Inflation Pulse", the recent surge in oil prices can be attributed to the widening WTI vs. Brent spread, which indicates a tightening of global oil supplies, and the geopolitical risk premium, which has increased due to the tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC supply decisions will also play a crucial role in shaping the oil price trajectory, with any cuts in production likely to add to the bullish sentiment. According to the backtest data, oil is one of the cleanest regime splits in the dataset, with a significant difference in returns between risk-on and risk-off episodes. RISK FACTORS: Two specific catalysts that could flip the signal BEARISH for Oil are a decline in the oil price below its 200-day SMA, currently at 77.05, and a recession signal from the US economy, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, which would lead to demand destruction and a risk-off episode. WATCH: The upcoming event to watch is the OPEC Meeting on June 4, 2024, which will provide insight into the cartel's supply decisions and their impact on the global oil market.

Aug 17, 2026

Copper: Industrial Growth Indicator — August 17, 2026 [RISK ON]

REGIME: The current Alphameter score of 0/100 indicates a NEUTRAL regime, but given the episode logic, we remain in a RISK-ON episode, with the Copper/Gold ratio's contribution to the risk-on score being a key mechanism behind this assessment. SENTIMENT DRIVER: The lack of specific headlines today means the sentiment driver is the overall market sentiment, which is being driven by the recent 6.1% increase in Copper price over the past 30 days, indicating a positive outlook for global growth. ANALYSIS: Through the "Industrial Growth Indicator" lens, the recent 1.0% increase in Copper price over the past 7 days suggests a continued positive outlook for global growth, with the Copper/Gold ratio being a key indicator of this trend. The backtest data shows that CPER has a muted regime split, with returns of +5.6%/yr risk-on and +9.4%/yr risk-off, indicating that Copper's performance is not heavily dependent on the regime. The Copper/Gold ratio's rise contributes to a risk-on score, regardless of CPER's spot returns, and as a leading indicator of global growth, Copper's current price action suggests a positive outlook. With Copper currently 10.5% above its 200-day SMA, the trend remains bullish. RISK FACTORS: Two specific catalysts that could flip the signal BEARISH for Copper are a decline in the Copper/Gold ratio below 0.45, indicating a slowdown in global growth expectations, and a drop in Copper price below its 200-day SMA, which would suggest a reversal of the current uptrend. WATCH: The upcoming event to watch is the release of the US GDP growth rate on January 27, which will provide further insight into the state of global growth and its potential impact on Copper prices.

Aug 17, 2026

EUR/USD: Dollar Dominance Report — August 17, 2026 [RISK ON]

REGIME: The current Alphameter reading of 0/100 indicates a RISK-ON environment, driven by the contrarian and trend signals, including the inverted DXY, which suggests dollar weakness is contributing to the higher risk-on score, supporting a BULLISH verdict for EUR/USD. SENTIMENT DRIVER: The absence of specific headlines today means the key indicator of DXY strength is the primary sentiment driver, as a falling dollar directly contributes to a higher risk-on score, which in turn supports EUR/USD price action, with the currency pair gaining 1.3% over the past 30 days. ANALYSIS: Through the "Dollar Dominance Report" lens, the current DXY weakness is driving capital out of safe haven dollars and into risk-on euros, as evidenced by the EUR/USD price action, which is 0.4% below its 200-day SMA but has gained 1.3% over the past 30 days, consistent with the backtest data showing EUR/USD gains of 3.1%/yr in risk-on episodes, driven by dollar weakness, and the fact that the Alphameter's inverted DXY signal is a core component of its risk-on score calculation, with a falling dollar directly contributing to a higher risk-on score, which in turn supports EUR/USD price action. RISK FACTORS: Two specific catalysts that could flip the signal BEARISH for EUR/USD are a DXY breakout above 95, which would indicate a shift in capital rotation back into safe haven dollars, and a 200-day SMA crossover to the downside, which would suggest a trend reversal, with the latter potentially occurring if EUR/USD price action falls below 1.12, a key support level. WATCH: The upcoming ECB Interest Rate Decision on March 12, 2024, will be closely watched, as any surprise change in interest rates or forward guidance could impact EUR/USD price action and influence the Alphameter's risk-on score, potentially altering the current BULLISH verdict.

Aug 17, 2026

S&P 500: Global Growth Benchmark — August 17, 2026 [RISK ON]

REGIME: The current Alphameter reading of 0/100 indicates a RISK-ON episode, which is BULLISH for the S&P 500, as the regime mechanism is driven by a combination of trend and contrarian signals, including the VIX and AUD/JPY, which are currently supporting the risk-on narrative. SENTIMENT DRIVER: The most important headline catalyst is the earnings call transcript of Freightways posting strong H2 2026 results, as this suggests that companies are able to navigate the current macro backdrop and deliver strong earnings, which is positively transmitting to the S&P 500 price action, with the index up 4.6% over the past 30 days. ANALYSIS: Through the lens of the Global Growth Benchmark, the S&P 500's current price action is consistent with a risk-on episode, with the index trading 10.2% above its 200-day SMA, and the VIX level, although not a primary driver, is also relatively low, which is consistent with the backtest data showing that the S&P 500 earns 11.1%/yr in risk-on episodes, but with a drawdown profile of -30.9% MDD, highlighting the importance of navigating the regime shifts, as the path through risk-off is what punishes investors, with the S&P 500 earning only 8.8%/yr in risk-off episodes. RISK FACTORS: Two specific catalysts that could flip the signal BEARISH for the S&P 500 are a VIX spike above 30, which would indicate a significant increase in market volatility and a potential regime shift, and a 200-day SMA breakdown, which would indicate a loss of momentum and a potential trend reversal, with a threshold of 7,400 for the S&P 500 price. WATCH: The upcoming event to watch is the earnings call of major companies, which will provide further insight into the health of the economy and the ability of companies to navigate the current macro backdrop, with the next major earnings season event scheduled for August 20, 2026.

Aug 17, 2026

Gold: Hedge Against Geopolitical Risk — August 17, 2026 [RISK ON]

REGIME: The current Alphameter reading of 0/100 indicates a RISK-ON episode, which is NEUTRAL for gold, as the backtest data shows that gold performs positively in both risk-on and risk-off regimes, with a modestly better performance in risk-off episodes, earning +11.3%/yr in risk-on and +13.0%/yr in risk-off. SENTIMENT DRIVER: The absence of a specific headline catalyst today means that the key indicator of real yields is the primary driver of sentiment, with positive real yields acting as a structural headwind for gold, as evidenced by the current 10Y Real Yield of 2.39%. ANALYSIS: Through the lens of a hedge against geopolitical risk, gold's recent price action, with a 7d change of +2.0% and a 30d change of +8.3%, suggests that investors are seeking safe-haven assets despite the current RISK-ON episode, which may be driven by central bank demand and concerns about future geopolitical events, and as the backtest data shows, gold has historically performed well in both risk-on and risk-off regimes, earning +11.3%/yr and +13.0%/yr respectively. RISK FACTORS: Two specific catalysts that could flip the signal BEARISH for gold are a decline in central bank demand, potentially triggered by a shift in monetary policy, and a significant increase in real yields, such as a rise above 3.0%, which would exacerbate the existing structural headwind for gold. WATCH: The upcoming event to watch is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 15, 2024, which may provide insight into the future direction of monetary policy and its potential impact on gold prices.

Aug 17, 2026

Bitcoin: Digital Gold vs. Fiat Debasement — August 17, 2026 [RISK ON]

REGIME: The current regime is BULLISH, as indicated by the Alphameter's RISK-ON episode, which has historically corresponded to a +62.0%/yr return for Bitcoin, with the bulk of its returns made in this regime. SENTIMENT DRIVER: The most important headline catalyst is "Bitcoin hovers around $63k as Strategy’s Saylor calls it ‘digital monetary energy’", as this statement from a prominent figure in the crypto space can influence investor sentiment and drive price action, with Saylor's endorsement potentially attracting more institutional investors to Bitcoin. ANALYSIS: Through the "Digital Gold vs. Fiat Debasement" lens, Bitcoin's current price action is influenced by its correlation to the Nasdaq/S&P 500, which has been relatively stable, and institutional flow signals, which have been increasing, indicating growing interest in the asset. The 30-year backtest data shows that Bitcoin compounds in both risk-on and risk-off regimes, but the bulk of its returns are made in risk-on, making it essential to size exposure accordingly. With Bitcoin currently 10.5% below its 200-day SMA, there may be room for upside, especially if institutional flows continue to increase. RISK FACTORS: Two specific catalysts that could flip the signal BEARISH for Bitcoin are a drop in price below the $50,000 threshold, which could trigger a wave of stop-loss selling, and a significant increase in regulatory scrutiny, such as a ban on Bitcoin transactions in a major economy, which could erode investor confidence. WATCH: The upcoming event to watch is the release of the US GDP growth rate on January 27, as a weaker-than-expected reading could lead to a decrease in risk appetite, potentially affecting Bitcoin's price.

Aug 17, 2026

US Bonds: The Cost of Capital — August 15, 2026 [RISK ON]

REGIME: The current regime is BULLISH, driven by the Alphameter's RISK-ON episode, which is supported by a steepening yield curve, with the 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Spread at 0.51%, indicating a growth environment. SENTIMENT DRIVER: The most important headline catalyst is the second Yahoo Finance headline, "10-year Treasury yield inches higher as traders digest soft retail sales, monitor the Middle East", which has contributed to the 1.7% 7-day increase in US Bonds price, as traders balance growth concerns with geopolitical risks. ANALYSIS: Through the lens of the Cost of Capital, the steepening yield curve suggests that the market is pricing in higher growth expectations, which is consistent with the RISK-ON regime, where long bonds like TLT have historically earned +1.3%/yr, albeit barely. The current yield curve shape implies that risk assets are likely to outperform, as the cost of capital is increasing, making it more expensive to borrow and invest in riskier assets. However, the backtest data also shows that IEF (7-10Y) has earned +1.5%/yr in risk-off episodes, indicating that shorter-term bonds may still provide some defensive benefits. RISK FACTORS: Two specific catalysts that could flip the signal BEARISH for US Bonds are a 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Spread inversion below -0.1%, indicating a recessionary environment, and a 10-year Treasury yield increase above 2.5%, which would signal a significant increase in the cost of capital and potentially lead to a risk-off episode. WATCH: The event to watch is the upcoming retail sales data release, which could impact the yield curve shape and the overall risk environment, potentially affecting the US Bonds price action.

Aug 15, 2026

Uranium: The Future Energy Trade — August 15, 2026 [RISK ON]

REGIME: The current regime is BULLISH, as indicated by the Alphameter episode regime, which remains in a risk-on state, with Uranium being the top single-asset risk-on performer in the 37-asset backtest, earning +62.8%/yr in risk-on episodes. SENTIMENT DRIVER: The key indicator of supply deficits and nuclear policy shifts is the primary catalyst driving Uranium price action, as it underscores the long-term structural bull case for the asset, with the current price of 44.93 reflecting a 7.9% discount to its 200-day SMA. ANALYSIS: Through the lens of the Future Energy Trade, Uranium's price action is driven by the growing recognition of its role in the global energy mix, with supply deficits and nuclear policy shifts driving the long-term structural bull case, as evidenced by the asset's +62.8%/yr return in risk-on episodes and +13.1%/yr return in risk-off episodes, highlighting its unusual resilience in both regimes, with the 7d change of +4.8% and 30d change of +3.9% further supporting this trend, and the backtest data suggesting that the macro episode filter can help size exposure to this trade. RISK FACTORS: Two specific catalysts that could flip the signal BEARISH for Uranium are a significant increase in global uranium production, potentially above 60,000 tons per year, and a major policy reversal in nuclear energy adoption, such as a shift away from nuclear power in a major country like Japan or France, which could lead to a decline in demand and subsequently impact Uranium's price. WATCH: The upcoming event to watch is the release of the World Nuclear Association's annual report on global uranium production and demand, scheduled for March 15, 2024, which could provide further insight into the supply deficits and nuclear policy shifts driving the long-term structural bull case for Uranium.

Aug 15, 2026