S&P 500: Global Growth Benchmark — May 7, 2026 [RISK ON]

REGIME: The current BULLISH verdict is driven by the Alphameter's RISK-ON episode regime, with a score of +69/100, indicating a strong risk-on environment where the S&P 500 tends to perform well, with historical returns of +17.0%/yr. SENTIMENT DRIVER: The most important headline catalyst is DoorDash's 12% surge on strong earnings and upbeat order growth guidance, as it reflects a positive earnings season sentiment that is transmitting to the broader S&P 500 price action, contributing to its 2.7% gain over the past 7 days. ANALYSIS: Through the lens of the Global Growth Benchmark, the S&P 500's recent gains are consistent with a strong risk-on environment, where earnings season sentiment is positive and VIX levels are relatively low, currently below 25, which historically coincides with a stable risk-on regime. The S&P 500's 12.3% gain over the past 30 days and its current position 9.2% above the 200-day SMA further support this view. According to backtest data, the S&P 500 tends to perform well in risk-on episodes, with returns of +17.0%/yr, while risk-off episodes are essentially dead money, with returns of +0.9%/yr. RISK FACTORS: Two specific catalysts that could flip the signal BEARISH for S&P 500 are a VIX spike above 30, which would indicate a significant increase in market volatility and risk aversion, and a Non-Farm Employment Change below 50K, which would suggest a slowdown in the labor market and potentially lead to a risk-off episode. WATCH: The 2026-05-08 NFP — Non-Farm Employment Change event will be closely watched, as a strong or weak reading could significantly impact the S&P 500's trajectory and potentially influence the Alphameter's regime score.