S&P 500: Global Growth Benchmark — August 17, 2026 [RISK ON]

REGIME: The current Alphameter reading of 0/100 indicates a RISK-ON episode, which is BULLISH for the S&P 500, as the regime mechanism is driven by a combination of trend and contrarian signals, including the VIX and AUD/JPY, which are currently supporting the risk-on narrative. SENTIMENT DRIVER: The most important headline catalyst is the earnings call transcript of Freightways posting strong H2 2026 results, as this suggests that companies are able to navigate the current macro backdrop and deliver strong earnings, which is positively transmitting to the S&P 500 price action, with the index up 4.6% over the past 30 days. ANALYSIS: Through the lens of the Global Growth Benchmark, the S&P 500's current price action is consistent with a risk-on episode, with the index trading 10.2% above its 200-day SMA, and the VIX level, although not a primary driver, is also relatively low, which is consistent with the backtest data showing that the S&P 500 earns 11.1%/yr in risk-on episodes, but with a drawdown profile of -30.9% MDD, highlighting the importance of navigating the regime shifts, as the path through risk-off is what punishes investors, with the S&P 500 earning only 8.8%/yr in risk-off episodes. RISK FACTORS: Two specific catalysts that could flip the signal BEARISH for the S&P 500 are a VIX spike above 30, which would indicate a significant increase in market volatility and a potential regime shift, and a 200-day SMA breakdown, which would indicate a loss of momentum and a potential trend reversal, with a threshold of 7,400 for the S&P 500 price. WATCH: The upcoming event to watch is the earnings call of major companies, which will provide further insight into the health of the economy and the ability of companies to navigate the current macro backdrop, with the next major earnings season event scheduled for August 20, 2026.