EUR/USD: Dollar Dominance Report — June 22, 2026 [RISK ON]

REGIME: The current BULLISH verdict for EUR/USD is driven by the Alphameter's RISK-ON episode, where a score of +13/100 indicates dollar weakness and a higher risk-on score, contributing to EUR/USD gains, with the asset historically performing +3.1%/yr in risk-on regimes. SENTIMENT DRIVER: The most important headline catalyst is "Back-stabbing myths are driving the US and Europe further apart", which could lead to increased tensions and decreased investor appetite for the US dollar, thereby driving EUR/USD price action higher as investors seek risk-on euros. ANALYSIS: Through the "Dollar Dominance Report" lens, the current DXY weakness suggests that capital is rotating out of safe haven dollars and into risk-on euros, which is consistent with the Alphameter's RISK-ON episode and historically supports EUR/USD gains, as evidenced by the +3.1%/yr return in risk-on regimes, compared to -0.2%/yr in risk-off regimes. The 7d and 30d changes of -0.6% and -2.6%, respectively, indicate a recent decline in EUR/USD, but the Alphameter's RISK-ON score suggests that this decline may be temporary. With EUR/USD currently 1.8% below its 200-day SMA, there may be room for a rebound. RISK FACTORS: Two specific catalysts that could flip the signal BEARISH for EUR/USD are a DXY surge above 105, indicating a strong safe-haven demand for the US dollar, and a Core PCE Price Index m/m reading above 0.5%, which could lead to increased expectations of monetary policy tightening and a subsequent strengthening of the US dollar. WATCH: On 2026-06-25, the Core PCE — Core PCE Price Index m/m event will be closely watched, as it has the potential to impact the US dollar's strength and, in turn, EUR/USD price action, with an estimated reading of 0.3%.