Gold: Hedge Against Geopolitical Risk — June 22, 2026 [RISK ON]

REGIME: The current Alphameter episode regime is BULLISH for Gold, with a score of +13/100, indicating a risk-on environment where Gold has historically performed well, earning +11.3%/yr. SENTIMENT DRIVER: The absence of a specific headline catalyst today means the key indicator of real yields is the primary driver, with positive real yields at 2.23% acting as a structural headwind for Gold, influencing its price action. ANALYSIS: Through the lens of a hedge against geopolitical risk, Gold's performance is influenced by real yields and central bank demand. With real yields at 2.23%, a structural headwind exists for Gold, but historically, Gold has still performed positively in both risk-on and risk-off regimes, earning +11.3%/yr and +13.0%/yr respectively. Central bank demand can offset the impact of positive real yields, but the current environment suggests a cautious approach. Gold's price, 7.3% below its 200-day SMA, reflects the ongoing tension between its role as a hedge and the headwind from positive real yields. RISK FACTORS: Two catalysts that could flip the signal bearish for Gold are a significant increase in real yields above 2.5% and a sharp decline in central bank demand, potentially triggered by a shift in monetary policy or a decrease in geopolitical tensions. Both of these factors could lead to Gold underperforming. WATCH: On 2026-06-25, the Core PCE Price Index m/m will be released, providing insight into inflation expectations and potentially influencing real yields, a key indicator for Gold's performance.